Ann Arbor Times

University of Michigan experts are offering their perspectives on the potential impacts of a federal government shutdown, which could occur if lawmakers do not reach an agreement by the end of Tuesday.

Stephanie Leiser, lecturer at the Ford School of Public Policy and director of the Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy, noted that state and local governments rely heavily on federal funding. “The big picture is that federal, state and local budgets are tightly intertwined through hundreds of different programs, so federal budget choices absolutely have a direct impact on state and local governments,” she said. “Most states get around 30%-40% of their revenues from the federal government, and local governments are often even more reliant on transfers from state and federal sources.

“While everyone waits to see how the politics will play out and who the biggest losers and winners will be, we also need to remember that the uncertainty is already costing us in terms of delayed investment/spending, higher borrowing costs and depletion of reserves. Everyone is spending all of their time spinning scenarios and worrying about the next few weeks and months instead of planning for the future.”

Donald Moynihan, J. Ira and Nicki Harris Family Professor of Public Policy at the Ford School of Public Policy and co-director of the Better Government Lab, highlighted broader consequences for public services. “Government shutdowns undermine economic activity, but also weaken the government’s long-term capacity to perform its core tasks,” he said. “Shutdowns are damaging at the best of times. Coming on top of months of employee cuts and disruption, a shutdown will be even more damaging than usual now.

“The threat to fire federal employees because politicians cannot pass a budget is unprecedented, and will further erode the capacity of the federal government to serve the public.”

Emily Toth Martin, professor at the School of Public Health and co-director of both Michigan Center for Respiratory Virus Research and Response as well as director for outbreak analytics funded by CDC, explained that interruptions in communication with agencies like CDC or NIH could hinder efforts during flu season. “CDC and NIH staff are in regular contact with scientists and state and local health officials to track new and changing infectious diseases,” she said. “To halt those conversations now, especially as we are headed into a cold and flu season with the potential for new strains of influenza, will limit information that people and their physicians use to protect families from infections and care for the sick. Dealing with funding instability like this shutdown stretches the resources of an already strained public health system.”

Jennifer Garner, John G. Searle Assistant Professor at School of Public Health who researches nutrition programs such as WIC (Special Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program for Women, Infants, and Children), discussed how these programs might face resource shortfalls if funding lapses occur: “There are both tangible and intangible consequences of a federal government shutdown. Tangible consequences include the imminent potential for discretionary and contract-based programs, such as the Special Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program for Women, Infants, and Children, to experience shortfalls in resources and delays in services,” she said. She added that fiscal ties between agencies mean effects can spread widely beyond what many expect.

Garner also commented on possible longer-term political effects: “Such a shutdown is also likely to undermine overall trust in government and exacerbate existing political discord... For example... ill will generated during... negotiations may linger... influence other imminent negotiations such as ...a new farm bill.”

Christopher Friese—Elizabeth Tone Hosmer Professor at School Of Nursing—pointed out specific risks within health care delivery: ‘The government’s contingency plan for Department Of Health And Human Services poses challenges for nurses And health care delivery,” he said. He warned grantmaking would stop during a shutdown which could put some agencies at risk; admissions to NIH clinical center would be limited; disaster response could slow; Medicare/Medicaid queries would go unanswered.

Sue Anne Bell (associate professor at School Of Nursing) described risks faced by patients relying on federally funded clinics or home visiting programs: “A government shutdown threatens stability not just for nursing workforce but for patients And communities they serve.... A prolonged disruption risks widening gaps In health care when communities can least afford it.... Communities facing hurricanes wildfires or other crises can still expect A Federal presence but recovery efforts may slow down As critical administrative And support systems Are disrupted.... Prolonged shutdowns risk leaving disaster-affected populations With delayed recovery And fewer resources For rebuilding.”

Michael Shepherd (assistant professor Of health management And policy) studies rural health issues including hospital closures/opioid epidemic/Medicaid policy—he expects significant negative impacts: “Democrats And Republicans have reached A negotiating impasse largely regarding Affordable Care Act premium subsidies.... The cost Of insurance premiums ‘will skyrocket For most American families If subsidies Are allowed To lapse.’” He indicated payments For Medicare/Medicaid would continue but possibly more slowly; there was uncertainty over which programs might see cuts if proposals move forward.

The University’s Office Of Vice President For Research has published guidance online about research operations during A possible shutdown (https://research.umich.edu/government-shutdown). According To The office: “A federal government shutdown can influence university research operations though its implications On U-M research And creative practice Will depend largely On The length Of A shutdown And corresponding guidance provided By affected Federal agencies… Faculty working On Federally sponsored projects That Are already ongoing Are not expected To experience major issues During A shutdown.... Agencies also Will not be able To provide assistance During A shutdown.... Government employees At The agencies Will not Be available To answer phone calls respond To emails Or update informational resources.”