Ann Arbor Times

New research from the University of Michigan and Ford Motor Company finds that the United States has enough graphite resources to meet projected demand for electric vehicle batteries and other uses through 2040. However, economic factors and quality concerns could complicate efforts to develop a domestic supply chain.

The study, funded by Ford through a Ford-U-M Alliance Project award and published in the Journal of Industrial Ecology, analyzed both natural and synthetic graphite supplies. The researchers estimate that U.S. demand for battery-grade graphite will approach 2 million metric tons over the next 15 years, while available domestic natural graphite exceeds 7 million metric tons. Despite this favorable balance, challenges remain.

“Currently, China dominates the global supply of graphite and there are concerns about supply chain security,” said Gregory Keoleian, professor at the University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability.

The quality of U.S. deposits is a key issue. “There’s plenty of graphite, but it’ll cost us a lot more to produce it than it would through Chinese mining,” said Stephen Kesler, professor emeritus at U-M Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences. “And that is not because they have lower wage levels and lower regulations. It is because our deposits are not of similar quality.” He explained that U.S. mines like Alaska’s Graphite Creek have lower concentrations—about 5%—compared to Chinese sites with grades above 10%.

Synthetic graphite production also faces constraints. Battery makers use more synthetic than natural graphite currently, but demand for synthetic material is expected to exceed U.S. production capacity in coming years.

Overall, when combining both natural and synthetic sources, the study projects total demand at just over 7 million metric tons against an estimated supply surpassing 9 million metric tons by 2040.

Environmental impacts were also considered in the study’s findings. “We also looked at the carbon footprint of graphite and it’s likely that there would be a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions with production in the United States compared with China,” Keoleian said. “So we should be producing it in the United States. We have a cleaner grid, and we generally have more strict standards with regard to operations from mining and manufacturing. Domestic production also alleviates the geopolitical risk associated with importing.”

At present, no active graphite mines operate in the United States; domestic production ceased mid-20th century due to cheaper imports. However, Graphite One is developing an Alaskan mine at Graphite Creek slated to open before 2030.

Kesler noted uncertainties about overall national reserves: “We have lots of graphite occurrences around the country and only a few of them have been looked at in detail, so there’s a huge amount of uncertainty about our total graphite resources. There are great big areas in this country that haven’t been evaluated in any real way,” he said. “So I think in the case of graphite, we might want to continue to import while we pursue development of a domestic supply chain.”

Additional members on the research team included Christian Hitt and lead author Sarah Gorman from University of Michigan’s Center for Sustainable Systems as well as Hyung Chul Kim, Robert De Kleine, and James Anderson from Ford Motor Company.