Ann Arbor Times

A recent study published in Nature Ecology and Evolution reveals the profound impact of extreme weather events on ecosystem services essential to human life. The research, led by Laura Dee from the University of Colorado and Peter Reich of the University of Michigan, utilizes a computer simulation to anticipate the consequences of climate change-induced disturbances on nature's benefits.

"We’re not the first people to try this and we won’t be the last, but it’s an attempt to holistically connect climate disturbances and natural processes," Reich stated. The simulation model examines how events like wildfires, windstorms, and heatwaves affect ecosystems and the services they provide, such as pollination, carbon sequestration, and water purification.

In the study, a Minnesota forest could lose up to 50% of its timber revenue in the event of a severe windstorm. Reich noted, "Even if all trees are flattened, the exact value of the economic loss will vary markedly depending on the mix of species and the size of the trees."

Dee emphasized the urgency of incorporating the effects of these extreme events into management strategies: "With climate change, there’s an urgent need to incorporate the impacts of extreme events like mega-fires and hurricanes on the benefits nature provides."

The term "ecosystem services" refers to the functions nature performs to support human life, from purifying water to stabilizing the climate by storing carbon. As climate change intensifies extreme weather, these disturbances have become a significant factor in ecosystem models.

The research team developed a mathematical model to track the impact of extreme weather on species and ecosystem services, accounting for how these services are valued by people. The model's application to a northern Minnesota forest indicated potential timber value losses from 23% to 50% due to windstorms, affecting recreational activities as well.

Reich observed, "We know that all aspects of ecological health are important, but monetizing the services we get from nature is illuminating." He suggests that understanding the economic impact of losing biodiversity could motivate protective measures.

The study is particularly timely given a report from the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization stating more than 150 unprecedented extreme weather events occurred last year. Dee argued for the inclusion of climate change impacts in future economic analyses, emphasizing the overlooked value of nature's contributions: "If we fail to consider the growing risks from extreme weather events, we could lose more than we realize."